Looking to the Future

Geelong, Gold Coast Correlation and Expectations

The Suns and Cats, may well be quite similar...

Geelong

In 2007 the Cats became the established premiership contenders that they're today. A well known story among most footy fans, the Cats had an in-house analysis of themselves. The results weren't pretty. From then on they became a force to behold. They clinically dismantled Richmond in that weekends game and went on to win the premiership by the greatest recorded margin. Simple really! But what's this got to do with fantasy? Or Gold Coast for that matter? 

2007 wasn't quite like any year I've been involved in any of the fantasy competitions. That year, due to Geelong's progression as a side, and with so many breakouts occurring within the one year, the fantasy scores from the Cats were never seen before. Having a side with 8+ cats at any stage of that year would've been a side to reckon with. Bartel went from an average of (AFL DT) 98 to 114 (best scorer in the league by some distance), Stevie J 67 to 94, Corey 89 to 104, Mackie 69 to 83, Stokes 77 to 88! In those days especially, these types of averages were all top of the tree! What these scores predicate is that when a side goes from an also run, to a premiership contender, many of their players averages will jump substantially. It can also be thought of the other way around, the players scores are greater and thus the side is a premiership chance. Either way it doesn't really matter. the crux of it is, when you jump from one bracket to the next you'll see improvements in scores.

Gold Coast

As we saw on the weekend, Gold Coast are no longer easy beats. Collingwood were down, but not to the extent that they wouldn't have beaten a lot of sides in the competition. The Suns, led by the great bald man, are beginning to make heads turn. Statistically speaking, break outs occur from seasons 4 to 6 with more regularity than any other band if seasons for a footballer. With that in mind, we must use these types of facts to our benefit. Gold Coast will be entering their 4th season of football in 2014. They've been steadily developing. More importantly, they've got rolled gold stars in their ranks, beginning to gain the needed exposure to the elite level. With this in mind it then becomes a decision of how far you see Gold Coast going in 2014. They're an unknown quantity, expansion teams in the past haven't begun their progression with such faith in draft picks. One thing is perfectly obvious, they're on the improve. This is what me must take from it;

• Across the board averages should improve as the team does
• They have the caliber of player in their side to contend for the premiership

What does this all mean?

Obviously I don't have a crystal ball. Predicting the future is what the fantasy game is built on, and what a lot of life is built on, and if we could all do it their wouldn't be too much point to much at all. Loading up on Suns in 2014 will be a risky strategy, because you'll need improvement. But to win prizes, people who're risk adverse are unlikely to be in contention. Personally, with the addition of a previous AA player in Nathan Bock and the much publicized O'Meara v2.0 in Jack Martin, I think this group can go very far indeed. In 2014, I think they can contend for the top 4, with a view to winning the premiership in 2015. Thus, I'll be looking to start as many Suns as feasibly possible in 2014. A few names to consider for 2014 off the top of my head include;  Bennell, Dixon, Matera, Prestia, Swallow, Ablett, Martin and I'm certain a couple more will prove themselves before Round 1. Anyway it's a wait and see proposition at this stage. Gold Coast are on the up, so just make sure you have a lot of GC cover for when they take the next step! 

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AFL Movements

Dees Debacle 
New article topic today. AFL Movements, a place to discuss the on goings of football, and more to the point, how this will affect fantasy scores! This will be the regular post on a Monday from here on, was just trying to workout what was relevant to us fantasy folks. Today I'll discuss the Dees coaching change and what this may mean for the Melbourne players fantasy scores.

Coaching change once  again at the Dees

As we all know, the Demons finally put end to the mess that was Mark Neeld's senior coaching career last week. Big discussion point amongst the whole AFL community quite obviously. What is relevant from our point of views is how Craig wants the Dees to play, and whether he can make them play this way. Craig has said that he liked some qualities of the Neeld game plan, and will also bring in some of his own. The Dees have averaged 311 disposals this year, but got 366 on Saturday, a reasonable lift which shows that Craig has put an emphasis, rather than holding to an attempted defensive, contested game style, he is allowing a bit more free wheeling. I think this is important in the general context. The Dees should begin to get slight increases across the board on their averages. The other thing to consider is the different views Craig may have on differing players. Thus I'll discuss some players.

Mitchell Clisby

Clisby, a mature age (23) rookie rebounder from North Adelaide immediately came into the team for Craig's first game. This says something. He has been in good form in the VFL, and with the Dees finally allowed to promote another rookie, Clisby came into the team. He had a strong performance and looked composed with the ball. At basement price in all comps, he produced a 70DT/71SC, once again suggesting he has the talent. If you're in the market for a cheap back, his job security looks good, he actually looks like he can play and better still he has a role which should produce good scores. Craig obviously rates him, so he is definitely someone to consider due to this coaching change.

Colin Sylvia

None other than the bad ass Colin Sylvia. It's pretty hard to write about him to be honest, my hatred for him is quite great indeed (along with thousands of other coaches I believe). But he's always had ability. This is only a pick I'd be comfortable with in a game which has an excess of trades, because it's highly likely you'll need to ship him out. But bare with me. He produced a 114/113, looked like a star and was given the free wheeling role he loves under this new regime. When he gets hot, he gets mega hot. Could easily average 105+/110+ from here. Averaging 87.1/86.2, he could be an option. Started to play well recently and Craig will want ball hungry players like him to hunt it. Expect a big average from here on in, just don't expect it for long.

Other players worthy of mention include guys like Jake Spencer and Colin Garland, but I'd wait a bit on those 2 just to define their actual role. So the main points to come out of this are;

1. Craig has got them playing a more open, free wheeling game
2. Disposals are up
3. He'll have his favourites, and thus they'll produce the goods
4. Colin Sylvia is once again an option

 Anyway thanks for reading, tell me what you think about this in the comments, enjoy fantasy folks!