Fantasy Analysis

A Team Full of Stars? What to do now?

AFL Fantasy across all competitions has changed in 2013. No longer do we have to conserve trades as greatly (or at all in AFL DT), and with most teams having 22 guns on the field now, the question is what can we now do with our squads?

How can you make a side like this any better?

Having played EPL Fantasy for a number of years, we can actually take a leaf out of that fantasy game and transfer it to ours. EPL Fantasy focuses largely on building a side which creates profit (like ours) and then finding players with strong runs (ex; playing low quality sides in succession over a period, the longer the better). After making sure that you have strong fantasy cover on all 4 benches (to bypass a potential late out that leads to the dreaded donut), we need to focus on strong end of season runs, or even strong runs for the next 3 to 4 weeks. Finding a unique gem who can step it up from a 100 average to 120, even over a 4 game period might be the difference between earning a double chance in your cut throat league or  getting knocked out first week of finals. So with these points in mind, I'll produce the teams with the best and worst draws so we can take into consideration these details when we make the sideways trades that attempt to get a leg up on the opposition!

Brisbane's Draw;

Melbourne

PA

STK

Richmond

GWS

Bulldogs

Geelong

The Lions have the best draw from here on! There are at least 4 sides which the Lions should beat, and more to the point, these games will have the fantasy points flowing through. Getting on any Lions player from here on should be considered. Expect a Hanley-type to jump back up to a 95+ average, but finding a smoky from the Lions might be the big difference!

Fremantle;

Richmond

Adelaide

Carlton

GWS

Melbourne

PA 

STK

In all honesty, the Dockers should easily account for all these sides. They're beginning to wind up for the finals, and as such they won't take any of these games easily. Especially when you consider a top 4 position is on offer. Stock up on your Dockers, especially for the last 4 weeks of the season. Guys like Mundy, Fyfe and Barlow can all average 110+ from here. Jump on!

Other sides such as the Dees, Port Adelaide and StKilda have strong draws and might be worth considering!

North Melbourne;

Carlton

Melbourne

Geelong

Adelaide

Essendon

Hawks

Collingwood

Looking at this fixture list, one thing becomes clear. Don't get on a Roo. More to the point, if you have any trade them out. Given we now know North are unlikely to make the finals, restings and early surgeries will also occur. The draw is horrendous with only one strong fixture from here on. Jump ship now!

Adelaide;

Geelong

Fremantle

PA

North

Bulldogs

Melbourne

West Coast

Looking at that fixture it certainly isn't the worst going around. My issue is that once again, the Crows will not be making the finals this year and it seems like a good idea to put the senior crew in for early surgeries and the like. I wouldn't look to bring in any Crows at this stage, and if you have a couple, proceed with caution. Obviously there are 2 very good games in the last 3, so if you're a risk taker, bringing someone in for the last 3 may be an option.

It's also worth noting who are the easy sides to score and who are the harder sides. This Table sums up (from easiest to hardest), who is the hardest side to score against!

Points Conceded on Average, from Highest to Lowest

1st- Melbourne

2nd- GWS

3rd- Bulldogs

4th- Lions

5th- Gold Coast

6th- St Kilda

7th- Sydney

8th- Geelong

9th- Fremantle

10th- Adelaide

11th- Port Adelaide

12th- Hawthon

13th- Richmond

14th- West Coast

15th- Essendon

16th- Collingwood

17th- Carlton

18th- North

That's worth saving that information. Many surprises, none more so than North being the toughest to score against! Anyway read through that table!

Thanks To Joseph Looby from AFL Dreamers, who provided some fantastic research on this topic such as the fantastic table above and Chad Leverington a Fantasy and Port Adelaide Fanatic for  providing a picture of his team of stars!

Thanks for reading everyone! Do you guys agree with this consensus? Comment below! If you guys enjoyed the post like our page HERE and follow me on twitter HERE! Once again thank you fantasy fellows, good luck for Round 16!

The Unique Men

David Mundy

Say Hello to your Fantasy Norm Smith Medallist

Mundy by the Stats...

Stadium Fantasy Sport - 121ppg, $662,200, High (174), Low (61.5), Last 5- 127.4
AFL DT- 96.6ppg, $472,500, High (131), Low (70), Last 5-104.6, Owned by 2.96%
AFL SC- 104.3ppg, $527,700, High (139), Low (63), Last 5-111.6, Owned by 4.43%
AFL Sportal- 128.55ppg, $475,700, High (186), Low (88), Last 5-156, Owned by 5.3%











The 19th draft selection in the 2003 draft (previously owned by the Dogs but on traded to the Dockers), David Mundy has steadily improved throughout his career in a footballing and fantasy sense. Someone who is constantly talked about in glowing terms for having elite disposal by hand and foot, Mundy is beginning to deliver on his potential as a fantasy star. The first figure which appears to be extremely important is his half yearly averages.



In 2011, Mundy was injured in the second half of the year and thus this is an outlier. Bar 2009, which was only his fifth season in the AFL (and a break out season at that), his numbers have improved during the second halves of years. Obviously we have begun the second half of the season, Mundy appears to be much like the Goodes-type 'second half of the season specialist'. These players are the ones that need to be owned by fantasy players, as a big second half of the season can not only catch your opposition by surprise, but it can allow for a season defining differential which could make all the difference come fantasy finals. Now to add fuel to the fire, this is how Mundy ended 2012 after battling injuries early in the year (AFL DT/AFL SC);

121/128 V Eagles
73/81 V Crows
130/117 V Richmond
125/129 V North
111/132 V Melbourne

Totalling 112/117.4

If he was averaging these numbers it'd place him on average as the 3rd best mid in AFL DT (disqualifying a 2-gamer in Tom Mitchell and Steve Johnson who can be picked as a forward) and the 4th best mid in AFL SC (using the same disqualification system). This also puts to bed the theory that he is only a Supercoach/Stadium Fantasy player (games which rely on quality as well as quantity). Now look at his recent numbers;

92/103 V Collingwood
105/104 V Sydney
131/131 V Melbourne
71/81 V Adelaide
124/139 V Brisbane

Totalling 104.6/111.6

Considering he hasn't yet hit the peak of his season (which is the balk half of the season as the data shows), these are very good numbers in both fantasy competitions. Also note that he managed to score well against strong opposition in Sydney and Collingwood, whilst also 'cashing in' on the weak teams. The next thing that needs to be considered is the Dockers draw till the end of the season. It reads;

NM @ Patterson's
Cats @ Simmonds
Saints @ Patterson's
Eagles @ Patterson's
Tigers @ MCG
Crows @ Patterson's
Carlton @ Etihad
GWS @ Patterson's
Melbourne @ MCG
Port Adelaide @ Patterson's
Saints @ Etihad

Green= Weak opposition
Red= Difficult
Black= Mid pack  



That right there is a thing of beauty. 7 of the next 11 weeks are weak opposition, which are bleeding fantasy points in season 2013. They only have two very difficult opponents from their next 11. This is an amazing draw when you consider what it allows Fremantle to produce from a fantasy production! They certainly have the strongest draw on the run to the finals. Although their is the obvious risk of a resting, the draw is simply far too good to neglect a player simply because of the resting potential.

The final noteworthy point on David Mundy is his uniqueness in all competitions. Mundy is owned by no more than 5.3% in any fantasy competition. This is the differential that fantasy coaches need when tasked with attempting to get a leg up on the competition. Although the opposing point of view is they must be unique for a reason, I suggest that you consider all the numbers and don't be blind in your judgement. Mundy is ready to produce, the numbers back it up! Hope you're ready to jump on, with the Saints in Round 23 he may just be your Fantasy Norm Smith Medallist!

Thanks for reading fellas! Comments would be greatly appreciated! Also if you haven't already, check out the new fantasy game Stadium Fantasy Sport which is a fantastic way to win fantasy prizes, with a great scoring system to back it up. Already won $600 from them, and plan to win much, much more! Till next time fantasy fellows!

The Unique Men

Michael Barlow

Is Michael Barlow a must have for the run home?

Bye- R11

By the Stats...
AFL DT- 108.1ppg, $530,000~, High (149), Low (81), Last 5-114.2, Owned by 5.92%
AFL SC- 111.7ppg, $550,000~, High (141, this week), Low (79), Last 5-117, Owned by 4.43%
AFL Sportal- 141.9ppg, $520,000~, High (180), Low (92), Last 5-147.6, Owned by 6.09%



We all love Michael Barlow. That is plain. He marauded around then Subiaco, like few had. Fremantle, a dire club who had never seriously challenged for a premiership suddenly had a star in their midst. In his debut game against the Crows he had 33 touches and 2.1! Fremantle had a new king. The weeks went on and his herculean average was around the 110 mark. Then Palmer, a much loved rookie not too long ago, was suddenly hated by all fantasy owners. Barlow's season ended at a 109.8/116 average, and that was that. Barlow had devestated the opposition week in week out for 13 games, but now found himself with a broken leg.

Broken Legs

This is important that we analyze the injury in its entirety before we go any further. It took Barlow approximately a year from when he did it, to get back on the field. This is a roughly the norm regarding this type of injury. Now we notice for the following 2 seasons, his numbers were down at 85.8/83.6 (2011, 9 games) and 96/95 (2012, 22 games). These numbers are obviously down on the incredible scoring that we saw Barlow deliver in his astounding debut year. But this is what interests me. Listening to players that have broken their legs, like Jed Adcock and Nathan Brown, both suggested that it took them roughly 18 months after playing their first agem on the footy field to 'feel themselves again'. If we use this logical explanation, it makes much sense that Barlow is now averaging numbers akin to his pre-injury numbers.

This Year
Barlow is back to his best! After a somewhat slow start 97/110, he has since turned in some awesome form, with scores of;

122/92 V Richmond
81/79 V Gold Coast
100/108 V Collingwood
123/119 V Sydney
149/138 V Melbourne
118/141 V Adelaide

Now as you can see by these numbers, he can score fantastically well against all sides, poor (Melbourne) and strong (Sydney). Now in the second half of the season he comes up against sides such as;

Brisbane @ Patterson's
GWS @ Patterson's
Melbourne @ MCG
St Kilda (Twice)
Port Adelaide @Patterson's

Not too mention West Coast and Richmond which he has also delivered massive scores on this year already. That means that 8 of the 12 matches left he has very favourable fixtures. Not that Barlow needs them if we go off those Sydney-type scores. Nonetheless, the question that must be asked is has Barlow rediscovered his scoring capacity of old, or is he simply in a good run of form. You should also consider that in his debut season, he sometimes got a tag, which will not occur given the likes of Mundy, Fyfe, Pearce and Hill running through their now. I'm going to back the data that he has now overcome all trauma of that dramatic incident on the 50 metre line of Subi. Get on the Barlow train while you can, because with a low score of 81/79, and him starting to hit that big score form, I see no reason why he won't average 110+/115+ for the rest of the season!


Stats from m0nty's fantastic site Fanfooty and chat in the comments regarding whether you think Barlow is back to his best in 2013 and whether he is the must have of the second half of the season!