Tuesday, 17 December 2013

Fantasy Predictions: Patrick Karnezis

The most hated fantasy face from 2013, can he turn the tide in 2014?

By the Stats...
Club: Collingwood
Position: Forward/Midfielder
Price: DT 212,700/ SC 179,000
Bye: Round 8
2013 average: DT 49.7/ SC 47.3
2013 games: 3

Patrick Karnezis is the forgotten man from the 2012 season, but his name now returns to the fore after making the switch to his childhood club, Collingwood.

Previous performance

During the 2013 pre-season he became a lock as a mid-pricer in every dreamers' forward line after he posted a 45 point game versus Hawthorn in two 20 minute halves. Over the next 3 full length NAB matches he then proceeded to average 80.3 points a game, playing on the half-forward flank and through the midfield.

To the dismay of many, however, he failed to produce this form in the season proper only managing 3 games in round 1, 2 and 10 before being dropped to the NEAFL for the rest of the year. In these 3 games he averaged 70 DT when excluding the sub affected 9 DT in round 2, not exactly poor returns.

Looking at his form in the NEAFL, it is extremely surprising that Karnezis did not get more of a call up into the struggling Lions' team. Playing through the forward line and midfield, he averaged a massive 114 DT from 14 games, with only 3 scores under 100 (40,89 and 49). Adding to this he also managed an average of 1.7 goals per game showing he can also be a danger up forward. In round 13, Karnezis topped 190 DT, with 41 possessions, 15 marks, 5 tackles, 2 goals and 4 behinds. But, these numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt as the NEAFL is not exactly the most competitive reserves league in Australia.

Although I've heard he has a reputation for sub-par disposal, Karnezis' efficiency isn't the worst in the land. In the 2012 season, Karnezis' kicking efficiency was 71.8% and handball efficiency was 72.2. His overall disposal efficiency of 71.9 was just below the AFL average of 72.3, not horrible but not particularly impressive either. This shows in his scores, as his DT and SC averages have always been within a 3 point difference in each season.

The interesting thing is, Karnezis averaged more than top priced rookie Jack Martin in the NEAFL with 114 DT compared to 97.5 DT and is much cheaper as well, $212,800 to $268,000. This shows Karnezis' enticing value, and his more mature body makes him a player that must be considered in your forward line.

Karnezis' mid/forward DPP is also very handy considering that this year there are considerably less dual position options to choose from, and it could be a big help in navigating the ever-challenging byes this year.

The Worries

The biggest downside to Karnezis is his job security. In order to force his way into the team he will have to battle half-forwards such as Elliot and the returning Fasolo, as well as midfielders such as Beams, Swan, Pendlebury, Adams and Blair who are solid midfielders and can all rest forward and snag a goal. The green vest is also a worrying possibility for Karnezis, as his size and mobility give him the versatility to play forward, in the midfield or even in defence if needed. But the words of Derek Hine have suggested that Collingwood most certainly rate his ability and want to develop him as a true midfielder definitely make him much more valuable in fantasy terms, but will he manage to show this ability in 2014?

Another of the downsides to Karnezis is that he has yet to properly prove himself at AFL level. Averages of 47.5, 46.2 and 49.6 DT, as well as 51, 49 and 43 SC between 2011-2013 are below par, and while he performed very well at NEAFL level, it is not a good indicator as to his performance at elite level. Fantasy lovers may also still be feeling the pain of starting with him last year, making them once bitten twice shy when considering him. But with the Pies ranked number 1 for average DT points scored per game in 2013 (1631.55) and Lions ranked 16 (1462), the Pies' different game plan could also mean him seeing more of the footy.

Important points:

+Great stats in NEAFL
+Mature body
+In a DT friendly team
+Mid/Fwd DPP

-Job security
-Yet to prove himself at the highest level
-Disappointment in 2013 makes him a nervy pick.

Hope everyone enjoyed my first post for JAFB, look forward to more as they're pumped out through the preseason!