Thursday, 30 May 2013

The Teams Round 10 (from a Fantasy Perspective)

Obviously all fantasy players aren't relevant. Or are they?
If you aren't aware Stadium Fantasy Sport has made nearly every fantasy player relevant this year, with fantastic giveaways each and every match! The prizes on offer are fantastic for very little effort indeed. Anyway hope you enjoy as I provide the teams with a fantasy spin!

The Teams

The Rookie to Watch

In: R.Harwood, P.Karnezis, B.Longer, J.Crisp, M.Paparone, J.Clarke
Out: J.Brown (suspension), M.Leuenberger (hand), T.Rockliff (leg), J.Lisle, J.Green, S.Mayes (soreness)

Massive fantasy news from these teams sheets. Leuey- OUT! Rocky-OUT! Mayes-OUT! JB-OUT! From a stadium sports point of view, Longer looks like good value given he has the main ruck duties now. Watch for Karnezis' role, if given the wing maybe look to him as a downgrade option in DT.

In: A.Didak, K.Martin, J.Thomas, H.Shaw
Out: J.Russell (ankle), S.Dwyer (groin), M.Clarke, J.Witts

Dwyer gone is the big, and unexpected news from these teams. Watch for Kyle Martin, he's been killing it in the VFL and if he can avoid the vest, watch for a monster score. Could be a seriously good downgrade option. Has been averaging 105+/115+ in the VFL! Didak and Shaw may be good solid unique players in the Stadium Fantasy game.

In: C.Yarran, L.Casboult
Out: R.Warnock (knee), K.Lucas (hamstring)

Lucas is the only out of name in this game. Yarran coming in is a bonus for the Blues, but expect him to start as the sub.

In: D.Brogan, J.Townsend, N.Wilson
Out: S.Gilham, S.O'hAilpin, A.Miles

Townsend coming in means Murphy is going to have to go up against a tagger in serious form, I might avoid in Stadium Fantasy as a point of view. 

No Change

No change at the crows means they'll go in with a similar structure to last week.

In: S.Hill
Out: C.Sutcliffe

Hill coming in frees up Pearce a little bit more, extreme value in Stadium Fantasy atm, look to get on!

In: T.Mitchell, T.Walsh
Out: S.Reid, J.Lamb

 Tom Mitchell comes in for his first game. Has a major reputation through his junior days, and if he can avoid the vest, expect a big score! Also has had 51 & 55 possessions in his last 2 weeks! WOW! Lamb and Reid are out with injury, so it may be a slightly easier day for Carlisle and the like.

In: S.Gumbleton
Out: M.Hurley (ankle)

Much of a muchness, Gumby is in good form, but his value has risen substantially in Stadium Fantasy, meaning he mightn't be the greatest option unless you think he could kick an unlikely bag against the stingy Swans.

In: J. Kelly, N. Vardy
Out: J. Podsiadly (knee), J. Thurlow (rested)

Thurlow being rested is the big out regarding fantasy. The most traded in option last week will be thereabouts next week, but may need an injury or poor form to regain his place after last weeks effort.

In: M.Rischitelli, K.Horsley, J.Wilkinson, T.Nicholls, T.Sumner
Out: J. Brennan (knee), G. Broughton, S. May, J. Hutchins, J. Lonergan (hamstring)

Lonergan and Hutchins are the two rooks to miss out. Jesse is a big issue, and someone to move out given the byes which are about to occur.

In: M.Wallis, M.Talia
Out: M.Boyd(calf), T.Young (calf)

Boyd out is a massive loss. In comes Mitch Wallis and expect a big return given his additional responsibility with his inspirational captain on the sidelines. A sneaky captain choice in Stadium Fantasy.

Port Adelaide
In: C.Hitchcock, J.Hombsch, J.Neade
Out: M.Thomas (shoulder), A.Moore, S.Colquhoun

Hitchcock is back and may be a valid downgrade option if he can sustain his position within the side. Neade is another small forward back in, someone which all fantasy owners will be excited about

The Sunday Teams

In: D.Rodan, J.Macdonald, J.Strauss, J.Spencer, J.Fitzpatrick, C.Pedersen, D.Kent

Out: S.Byrnes (wrist), J.Magner, N.Jetta, M.Gawn

In: M.Osborne, D.Hale, G.Birchall, S.Savage
Out: J.Gunston (calf)

In: L.Greenwood, W.Sierakowski, J.Gysberts, T.Hine
Out: J.Ziebell (suspension)

In: D.Armitage, J.Ferguson, N.Wright, J.Saunders
Out: L.Hayes (calf)

In: A.Selwood, P.McGinnity, A.Embley
Out: -

In: A.Edwards, D.Astbury, M.Arnot, M.Dea, B.Helbig
Out: L.McGuane, R.Nahas

 So how have you done with the teams this week? A bit of carnage for my side in particular :( 
Would love a comment on how you're lining up this week!

Monday, 27 May 2013

Priceless Projections

The Ideal Fantasy Side (for AFL Dream Team)

Who are the top dreamers of 2013?
We have well and truly begun upgrade season. Something around this time of year which I consider to be a major help for me choosing my upgrade targets is having a projections list. A list of players in their positions whom I consider to be the best players to have by seasons end. Without further ado, I give you the first Priceless Projections. Just a bit of house keeping as well, I will have a post up every Monday morning by 10.
So all you fantasy nuts will know when to check in...

The Backmen
The Must Have of the Backline in 2013
Goddard- proven performer, everyone should have him and if you don't get on ASAP. Very good durability and one of the only backs capable of averaging 105+!
Heppell- has broken out as predicted! Will be great for a 95+ average, has a very good inside and outside game, great durability as well.
Gibbs- will average 90+ and continually be a dependable option. Strong performer most weeks and that's more than you can ask from most backs this year.
Hanley- has broken out this season. Watch for the tag but most backs seem to be susceptible. Can go massive and one who'll be firmly in the top 6 by seasons end.
Hibberd- another to have broken out big time! Michael has been dominant this year. I don't see the tag coming soon either due to Essendon having a large array of guns in differing positions. Get on!
Birchall- Has been annoying last few weeks but the proof was in his start to the season. Ultra durable and will be a great value buy very soon.

The Next Bracket Options...

Scotland, Enright, Dixon, Duffield, Ibbotson, Enright, Stanley, Hartlett, Waters

The Midfield Men
The Son of God is at it again in 2013!

GAJ- no explanation needed, will be the best fantasy man of 2013, and best player regardless of the stats.
Swan- the fantasy pig. Watch Buckley though, he's been playing our beloved as a small forward. Let the pig rack them up BUCKS!
Pendles- easy 110+ man, safe as houses. Good durability and just churning out another solid year.
Cotchin- went big in the second half of last year, and will again. Should average 110+ once he gets over all his minor ailments.
Watson- another midfielder that performs weak in weak out. Susceptible to the tag on the rare occasion, but those moments are few and far between, getting to maximum form recently as well.
Boyd- Watch him go from strength to strength in the second half of the year. Showed what he could do on Saturday. A genuine freak with great durability and a passion to play each week sees him avoid the rest
Jack- read this
Barlow- it may well prove to be an early call, but I'm prepared to make it. Michael Barlow is back ladies and gentlemen! 105+ average from here on is extremely possible and likely. It'll be discussed in a

The Next Bracket Options...
Montagna, Stanton, Dangerfield, Kornes, S Thomspon, Deledio, S.Selwood, J.Selwood, Mitchell

 The Ruckmen

He's Back!

Cox- The best ruck in the competition by far. Will have a few big games later on as the Eagles hit form!
Nic Nat- The next best option. Already gone back to back hundreds, had a predicted breakout before his groin troubles, and seems to be well and truly over that due to West Coast's slow rehab approach. Enjoy this star as he shoots you up the rankings!

The Next Bracket Options... 
Goldstein, McEvoy, Roughead, Leuneberger

                                                                       The Forwards

Johnson, the must have if you're to be a contender in 2013!

- Lock, load, throw away the key and enjoy the ride. His skills are beyond ridiculous. Watch and marvel as he averages 110+!
Rockliff- Good strong option, will be up and down but will have a 95+ average which you can bank on.
Cloke- I'm calling it, big second half of the season coming up for this man. Got a good run and in form, if the Pies can click, watch him average 100+!
Voldt- All about whether he slows or not. Been the pick of the season thus far. Playing like the god which we'd seen in previous seasons. Would love to be enjoying this ride. His standard deviation is amazing as well!
Martin- Started to do what we all suspected he could. Other than the odd low, we have seen most of his scores as an 80+ with the odd BANG score. Could set a month on fire very soon. If he can continually hit his peak form, he'll be in the SJ bracket.
Goodes- He's back. Been playing a midfield role from the Hawks game onwards. When he's in that type of form (as seen on Friday), they'd be crazy to take him out of the engine room. Watch him shine in the second half of the season!

The Next Bracket Options...
 Bartel, Stokes, Chapman, Buddy, Lewis, JJK

So do you agree with the projections? Give a comment down below on what you'd have change! Thanks for reading :)

Saturday, 25 May 2013

The Unique Men

 Matthew Boyd
Still a fantasy stud or are his days done?
Bye- R11
Run (till the bye)- Port Adelaide, (Bye), Collingwood, Richmond

By the Stats...
22,22,20 games last 3 years, from most recent to least.
AFL DT- 115,116,115, $482,000, currently averaging
SC- 112,115,106, $508,200, currently averaging

We all know Matthew Boyd. Captain of the bulldogs, hard as nails and built like the proverbial brick shit-house! Good bloke who will give you his all week in week out and sadly suffers from the disease of leather poisoning. So should we have him in our fantasy sides for the back end of 2013? His season to date begun with yet another strong preseason and the expectation that he was going to put up another consistent Boyd year of 105+ in all fantasy competitions. Unfortunately he did injured his calf on the eve of the season. The old man injury as it's known, and ultimately that's a fair call given he will be turning 33 in August. Coming back from the injury he has posted;

89/74 V Adelaide
108/107 V Geelong
80/102 V Eagles
65/74 V North
96/73 V Gold Coast
138/150V Saints

Average:  96/96.67

Boyd loves Etihad! The major positive is 8 of his last 13 are at this venue. He has averaged 109/109.6 in his last 10 matches at Etihad and has numerous 130+'s! Now the question that must be answered is whether Boyd is still a fantasy stud, or are his days in that role over? Personally I'm of the belief that he has started slowly due to the loss of fitness and conditioning which you can only get from regular match play. I think he will average 105+ in all competitions, and as today's game shows, he can still smash out a big score! He won't get rested as he is one man who simply hates to miss any matches at all, so you can feel safe in his ability to be on the park each week. His R11 bye will help out for many a bye plan, and I know it could certainly help me get an even spread with the byes. So what is the consensus from the fantasy community? At as cheap a price as you could hope for a potential premium, are you jumping on now?

Thursday, 23 May 2013

The Teams Round 9 (From a fantasy perspective)

Obviously all fantasy players aren't relevant. Or are they?
If you aren't aware Stadium Fantasy Sport has made nearly every fantasy player relevant this year, with fantastic giveaways each and every match! The prizes on offer are fantastic for very little effort indeed. Anyway hope you enjoy as I provide the teams with a fantasy spin!

The Teams 
Bryce is BACK!

Coll: Clarke in for J Thomas.
Swans: Lamb in for Walsh.

Clarke strengthens the team with Thomas coming out. Look for O'Brien to continue his rebounding ways and expect a Swan (JPK/McVeigh) to cop a tag. Lamb may be a good pick in Stadium Fantasy if he can avoid the vest, has been in good form!

Lions: Green, Michael in for Merrett, Clarke.
Blues: Gibbs in for Menzel.

Lions will be a lot more offensive this week. Given Green is capable, he may avoid the vest this week and thus be a viable cheap option in Stadium Fantasy. Gibbs back is massive for all competitions, but expect a slow start.

Port: Logan, Thomas, Heath, Colquhoun in for Cassisi, P Stewart, Stevenson, Neade.
Cats: Johnson, Burbury in for Schroder, Horlin-Smith

Stevenson and Neade stop losing cash. Watch for Heath to bounce back. Colquhoun is a ball magnet and will be my first picked in Stadium Fantasy at his price. Stevie J may be set for a big one given he had the week off and my expectation is this will get ugly!

GWS: Hampton, Treloar, Buntine in for Bugg, Golds, Whiley.
Eagles: Butler, Brown, Dalziell, Hutchings in for A Selwood, Waters, Schofield, Wellingham.

Waters goes out again, but butler is back in. Expect him to have the rebounding role and may produce one out of the bag, a sneaky selection in Stadium Fantasy! Treloar might go bang after his weeks rest, has been very consistent all season.

Tigers: Newman, Lonergan, Maric in for Nahas, Stephenson, Dea.
Dons: Dempsey, Jetta in for Kavanagh, Merrett.

Lonergan may be a decent option in Stadium Fantasy this year, wins the contested ball, will just have to watch on his disposal, given his price I'd lock and load. Dempsey should continue in his free wheeling. 

The Sunday Teams

Hawks: Gibson, Cheney, Grimley, Hill in for Hale.
Suns: Murphy, Horsley, Wilkinson, Nicholls, Gorringe in for Smith, Bennell

North: Gysberts, Hine and Sierakowski - nil outs as yet

 Petrenko, Callinan, Henderson into 25.

Freo: Michie, Crozier, Taberner, Simpson into 25 for Walters.
Dees: Byrnes, Gillies, Spencer, Watts in for Toumpas

Looking to the Future

The Gold Coast Ruck Dilemma

Scraping the Barrel, GC's only ruck options 
Bye Round 13
Run- Hawks, Cats, North, Essendon
  • Thomas Nicholls (basement price in all competitions, solitary game of 44/45 in 2011)
  • Daniel Gorringe (DT- $129,800, SC- $149,800, Sportal- $118,100, Centrebet- $155,500)
  • Charlie Dixon (DT- 84.7/$374,000, SC- 104.5/$482,400, Sportal- 105.3/$349,800, Centrebet- 114.1/$416,200)

The ACL curse of 2013 struck once again on Saturday afternoon football. Zac Smith, beginning to reach his historic feats of his 2011 debut season (averages of 71.8/78.1, across 20 games), is now back to square one as he faces 12 months out on the sidelines. Marcus Ashcroft, the Suns football manager, confirmed the news on Monday morning and ever since McKenna and his staff have been searching for a viable ruck replacement . The only options have been displayed above.The word coming from McKenna's presser this week was that Nicholls was marginally infront of Gorringe to replace Zac.

Thomas Nicholls
Nicholls is at the basement price across all fantasy competitions. If he receives the role as number 1 ruck, at bare minimum you can expect a 55/65 type average. This is going off the bare minimum statistics of a ruckmen who gets a large amount of time on ground. A Blicavs to Nicholls type trade could ensure 100k, and a dependable third to fourth ruckmen which should provide solid numbers across all competitions. Given he has looked far more promising than Gorringe in the NEAFL (judged by pure numbers and fan talk), I think it's fair to say if he can show some promise the role will be his till the end of the season. My expectations from here on is that he will average a reasonable number of fantasy points, be a slow cash production, but someone who is ultimately dependable because of his more than reasonable JS. Watch his first game or two, because if he can produce anything like a reasonable performance, we will have a number 1 ruck at basement price.

Daniel Gorringe
The #10 pick of the 2010 draft has finally got a chance to string games together. Across his two seasons in red and gold, he has totalled 8 games at an average of 33.3/35.2, with a high of 63/54. He played the bulk of his games (7) in 2011 and suffered from injury in 2012 which restricted him to just the solitary game in 2012. As of this stage McKenna has him behind Nicholls, and till this changes he isn't very relevant. Watch this space, an injury to Nicholls or Dixon will leave Gold Coast with no choice but to play him.

Charlie Dixon

Dixon, as all avid footballers would be aware of, has had a breakout season to date. Currently suffering from an ankle injury. The last update to the injury list suggested Dixon was one week away. Now firstly we must look at Dixon's season to date and resulting numbers;

98/130 V Saints (2.2 & 9 HO's)
110/115 V Swans (3.0 & 21 HO's)
66/77 V Lions (0.0 & 11 HO's) [subbed off at 3QT with ankle]
65/103 V Crows (0.1 & 9 HO's)
119/142 V GWS (6.2 & 6 HO's)
50/52 V Fremantle (0.1 & 8 HO's) [subbed off during 3rd Q]

What we can deduct from these numbers is that Dixon can score against all teams in all circumstances (Swans game was at a wet SCG). Has only had one lowish score against the Crows, from a DT point of view, and the rest have been very solid indeed. Taking out the sub affected games he has averaged 98/125. From these numbers I deduct that DIxon has a very fantasy relevant game, especially in SC. With more ruck time which is now a guarantee after the Smith injury, I can see Dixon holding out an 85/105 average. He has proven he can score against strong teams as well as weak, determining that he is not in fact a flat track bully. Towards the end of last year he played more of a ruck role which shows that he can have an extended time in the middle. Personally I think Dixon can be an elite backmen in the SC format, and certainly be around the top 10 in DT. Watch for how he comes back from this ankle. We will have a couple of weeks before his price begins to go skyward once again. Could be the bargain of the year, watch closely!

Would really appreciate some discussion in the comments readers, only takes a minute to get a google account, till the next post, good luck fantasy folks!

Wednesday, 22 May 2013

The Unique Men

Kieren Jack

Bye- R12
Run (till the bye)- COLL, ESS, ADE.

By the Stats...
AFL DT- 106.12 ppg, $512,800, High (138), Low (57), Break Even (77), Last 5- 112.4 (In just 3.73%)
SC- 112.5, $517,400, High (130 twice), Low (65), Break Even (127), Last 5- 117.2
Centrebet- 141.8, $571,200, High (183), Low (75), Break Even (86), Last 5- 148.6
Sportal- 141, $509,000, High (182), Low (87), Break Even (106), Last 5- 148

Kieren Jack has always shown promise in the fantasy caper. As I will detail later, he has had the ability to go on sustained fantasy runs for long periods of time. During these runs he has averaged as if he is a premium, showing that ultimately when he is free of his tagging duties he is a bonafide midfield premium in all formats of the game.

In 2010, Jack showed his ability to become a fantasy star. His last 5 games of season 2010, his fourth season were as follows (DT/SC);
105/178 V Hawks
105/113 V Fremantle
111/148 V Dogs
128/148 V Lions
102/120 V Blues (EF, historically finals have been lower scoring)

Now this averages out to 112.2/141.4. Let me just reiterate, Jack (from rugby heritage), averaged Gary Ablett Jnr types numbers for a little over a month in just his fourth season. There is blatant potential for him to shine in both formats.
Then from round 8-21 last year his numbers were;
128/152 V Dees
105/123 V Saints
131/143 V Dogs
91/121 V Bombers
100/117 V Cats
127/147 V GWS
80/102 V Lions
118/158 V Eagles
93/97 V Saints
125/158 V GC
97/113 V Blues
99/108 V Pies
110/120 V Dogs

Look at that RUN! Wow, that's elite if I've ever seen it. That's an average of 108/127.6! Over that long of a period, we certainly get the notion that Jack has fantasy capabilities beyond most. In some of his bigger games, such as the round 10 match against the Dogs, he was in fact tagging. So he has the potential to be a two way player, similar to a Kornes type. He is developing and is starting to reach his peak as an AFL player, something which historically occurs in the sixth to seventh year of an AFL players career. Consistency, bar one of his games this year, has been ever prevalent. Getting use to the week in, week out bruises and knocks that an AFL player receives is one of the main reasons we're beginning to see consistency in Kieren's scores. My personal opinion is that we haven't even seen his BIG run this year, and when it occurs the top players of all fantasy codes will be on and riding high score after high score. He has the round 12 bye, another big plus with most fantasy coaches having an excess of round 13 byes due to the players within this bracket. Ultimately I consider him a top 8 midfielder in all formats by the end of the year, within this year that all fantasy premium midfielders dropping, in all formats by the end of the year.

Anyway comments would be appreciated, let me know what your thoughts on Kieren are!