Wednesday, 22 May 2013

The Unique Men

Kieren Jack

Bye- R12
Run (till the bye)- COLL, ESS, ADE.

By the Stats...
AFL DT- 106.12 ppg, $512,800, High (138), Low (57), Break Even (77), Last 5- 112.4 (In just 3.73%)
SC- 112.5, $517,400, High (130 twice), Low (65), Break Even (127), Last 5- 117.2
Centrebet- 141.8, $571,200, High (183), Low (75), Break Even (86), Last 5- 148.6
Sportal- 141, $509,000, High (182), Low (87), Break Even (106), Last 5- 148

Kieren Jack has always shown promise in the fantasy caper. As I will detail later, he has had the ability to go on sustained fantasy runs for long periods of time. During these runs he has averaged as if he is a premium, showing that ultimately when he is free of his tagging duties he is a bonafide midfield premium in all formats of the game.

In 2010, Jack showed his ability to become a fantasy star. His last 5 games of season 2010, his fourth season were as follows (DT/SC);
105/178 V Hawks
105/113 V Fremantle
111/148 V Dogs
128/148 V Lions
102/120 V Blues (EF, historically finals have been lower scoring)

Now this averages out to 112.2/141.4. Let me just reiterate, Jack (from rugby heritage), averaged Gary Ablett Jnr types numbers for a little over a month in just his fourth season. There is blatant potential for him to shine in both formats.
Then from round 8-21 last year his numbers were;
128/152 V Dees
105/123 V Saints
131/143 V Dogs
91/121 V Bombers
100/117 V Cats
127/147 V GWS
80/102 V Lions
118/158 V Eagles
93/97 V Saints
125/158 V GC
97/113 V Blues
99/108 V Pies
110/120 V Dogs

Look at that RUN! Wow, that's elite if I've ever seen it. That's an average of 108/127.6! Over that long of a period, we certainly get the notion that Jack has fantasy capabilities beyond most. In some of his bigger games, such as the round 10 match against the Dogs, he was in fact tagging. So he has the potential to be a two way player, similar to a Kornes type. He is developing and is starting to reach his peak as an AFL player, something which historically occurs in the sixth to seventh year of an AFL players career. Consistency, bar one of his games this year, has been ever prevalent. Getting use to the week in, week out bruises and knocks that an AFL player receives is one of the main reasons we're beginning to see consistency in Kieren's scores. My personal opinion is that we haven't even seen his BIG run this year, and when it occurs the top players of all fantasy codes will be on and riding high score after high score. He has the round 12 bye, another big plus with most fantasy coaches having an excess of round 13 byes due to the players within this bracket. Ultimately I consider him a top 8 midfielder in all formats by the end of the year, within this year that all fantasy premium midfielders dropping, in all formats by the end of the year.

Anyway comments would be appreciated, let me know what your thoughts on Kieren are!