Thursday, 23 May 2013

Looking to the Future

The Gold Coast Ruck Dilemma

Scraping the Barrel, GC's only ruck options 
Bye Round 13
Run- Hawks, Cats, North, Essendon
  • Thomas Nicholls (basement price in all competitions, solitary game of 44/45 in 2011)
  • Daniel Gorringe (DT- $129,800, SC- $149,800, Sportal- $118,100, Centrebet- $155,500)
  • Charlie Dixon (DT- 84.7/$374,000, SC- 104.5/$482,400, Sportal- 105.3/$349,800, Centrebet- 114.1/$416,200)

The ACL curse of 2013 struck once again on Saturday afternoon football. Zac Smith, beginning to reach his historic feats of his 2011 debut season (averages of 71.8/78.1, across 20 games), is now back to square one as he faces 12 months out on the sidelines. Marcus Ashcroft, the Suns football manager, confirmed the news on Monday morning and ever since McKenna and his staff have been searching for a viable ruck replacement . The only options have been displayed above.The word coming from McKenna's presser this week was that Nicholls was marginally infront of Gorringe to replace Zac.

Thomas Nicholls
Nicholls is at the basement price across all fantasy competitions. If he receives the role as number 1 ruck, at bare minimum you can expect a 55/65 type average. This is going off the bare minimum statistics of a ruckmen who gets a large amount of time on ground. A Blicavs to Nicholls type trade could ensure 100k, and a dependable third to fourth ruckmen which should provide solid numbers across all competitions. Given he has looked far more promising than Gorringe in the NEAFL (judged by pure numbers and fan talk), I think it's fair to say if he can show some promise the role will be his till the end of the season. My expectations from here on is that he will average a reasonable number of fantasy points, be a slow cash production, but someone who is ultimately dependable because of his more than reasonable JS. Watch his first game or two, because if he can produce anything like a reasonable performance, we will have a number 1 ruck at basement price.

Daniel Gorringe
The #10 pick of the 2010 draft has finally got a chance to string games together. Across his two seasons in red and gold, he has totalled 8 games at an average of 33.3/35.2, with a high of 63/54. He played the bulk of his games (7) in 2011 and suffered from injury in 2012 which restricted him to just the solitary game in 2012. As of this stage McKenna has him behind Nicholls, and till this changes he isn't very relevant. Watch this space, an injury to Nicholls or Dixon will leave Gold Coast with no choice but to play him.

Charlie Dixon

Dixon, as all avid footballers would be aware of, has had a breakout season to date. Currently suffering from an ankle injury. The last update to the injury list suggested Dixon was one week away. Now firstly we must look at Dixon's season to date and resulting numbers;

98/130 V Saints (2.2 & 9 HO's)
110/115 V Swans (3.0 & 21 HO's)
66/77 V Lions (0.0 & 11 HO's) [subbed off at 3QT with ankle]
65/103 V Crows (0.1 & 9 HO's)
119/142 V GWS (6.2 & 6 HO's)
50/52 V Fremantle (0.1 & 8 HO's) [subbed off during 3rd Q]

What we can deduct from these numbers is that Dixon can score against all teams in all circumstances (Swans game was at a wet SCG). Has only had one lowish score against the Crows, from a DT point of view, and the rest have been very solid indeed. Taking out the sub affected games he has averaged 98/125. From these numbers I deduct that DIxon has a very fantasy relevant game, especially in SC. With more ruck time which is now a guarantee after the Smith injury, I can see Dixon holding out an 85/105 average. He has proven he can score against strong teams as well as weak, determining that he is not in fact a flat track bully. Towards the end of last year he played more of a ruck role which shows that he can have an extended time in the middle. Personally I think Dixon can be an elite backmen in the SC format, and certainly be around the top 10 in DT. Watch for how he comes back from this ankle. We will have a couple of weeks before his price begins to go skyward once again. Could be the bargain of the year, watch closely!

Would really appreciate some discussion in the comments readers, only takes a minute to get a google account, till the next post, good luck fantasy folks!