Monday, 24 June 2013

AFL Movements

Dees Debacle 
New article topic today. AFL Movements, a place to discuss the on goings of football, and more to the point, how this will affect fantasy scores! This will be the regular post on a Monday from here on, was just trying to workout what was relevant to us fantasy folks. Today I'll discuss the Dees coaching change and what this may mean for the Melbourne players fantasy scores.

Coaching change once  again at the Dees

As we all know, the Demons finally put end to the mess that was Mark Neeld's senior coaching career last week. Big discussion point amongst the whole AFL community quite obviously. What is relevant from our point of views is how Craig wants the Dees to play, and whether he can make them play this way. Craig has said that he liked some qualities of the Neeld game plan, and will also bring in some of his own. The Dees have averaged 311 disposals this year, but got 366 on Saturday, a reasonable lift which shows that Craig has put an emphasis, rather than holding to an attempted defensive, contested game style, he is allowing a bit more free wheeling. I think this is important in the general context. The Dees should begin to get slight increases across the board on their averages. The other thing to consider is the different views Craig may have on differing players. Thus I'll discuss some players.

Mitchell Clisby

Clisby, a mature age (23) rookie rebounder from North Adelaide immediately came into the team for Craig's first game. This says something. He has been in good form in the VFL, and with the Dees finally allowed to promote another rookie, Clisby came into the team. He had a strong performance and looked composed with the ball. At basement price in all comps, he produced a 70DT/71SC, once again suggesting he has the talent. If you're in the market for a cheap back, his job security looks good, he actually looks like he can play and better still he has a role which should produce good scores. Craig obviously rates him, so he is definitely someone to consider due to this coaching change.

Colin Sylvia

None other than the bad ass Colin Sylvia. It's pretty hard to write about him to be honest, my hatred for him is quite great indeed (along with thousands of other coaches I believe). But he's always had ability. This is only a pick I'd be comfortable with in a game which has an excess of trades, because it's highly likely you'll need to ship him out. But bare with me. He produced a 114/113, looked like a star and was given the free wheeling role he loves under this new regime. When he gets hot, he gets mega hot. Could easily average 105+/110+ from here. Averaging 87.1/86.2, he could be an option. Started to play well recently and Craig will want ball hungry players like him to hunt it. Expect a big average from here on in, just don't expect it for long.

Other players worthy of mention include guys like Jake Spencer and Colin Garland, but I'd wait a bit on those 2 just to define their actual role. So the main points to come out of this are;

  1. Craig has got them playing a more open, free wheeling game
  2. Disposals are up
  3. He'll have his favourites, and thus they'll produce the goods
  4. Colin Sylvia is once again an option
 Anyway thanks for reading, tell me what you think about this in the comments, enjoy fantasy folks!

Thursday, 20 June 2013

The Teams Round 13 (From a Fantasy Perspective)

Obviously all fantasy players aren't relevant. Or are they?
If you aren't aware Stadium Fantasy Sport has made nearly every fantasy player relevant this year, with fantastic giveaways each and every match! The prizes on offer are fantastic for very little effort indeed. Anyway hope you enjoy as I provide the teams with a fantasy spin!

The Teams
The Cat is named!!! 
In: S.Savage
Out: I.Smith (corked calf)

A like for like replacement at the Hawks. Expect Savage to receive the vest.

In: D.Glass, B.Waters, M.LeCras, J.Kennedy, B.Dalziell, P.McGinnity
Out: A.Selwood (back), J.Hill (hamstring), A.Hams, J.Brennan, B.Sheppard, J.Cripps
Waters, Glass, LeCras and JJK all back! Big ins for the Eagles with no big name loss. If you think Glass can hold one of Roughead or Franklin I'd be tempted in Stadium Fantasy Sport, potentially a big score on the cards! Waters has always been a fantasy stalwart, and might be a slight unique option in Stadium given his return from injury. Expect Dalziell to get the vest, if he misses though he may be a good cheap option as well.

Port Adelaide
In: D.Cassisi, J.Pittard
Out: T.Boak (finger), C.Hitchcock (ankle)

Pittard is finally back after his one week injury (or so we were told)! Boak is a big loss, expect a higher output from Brad Ebert given his out, smoky option in Stadium!

Sydney Swans
In: T.Armstrong, K.Tippett, J.Lamb
Out: A.Everitt (Achilles), S.Mumford (cheekbone), B.Jack 

The surprise end of season mover, Kurt Tippett is set for his debut. Buyer beware in Stadium as we don't know exactly how he will be used. Personally I'm tempted though, looks like an option who could dominate a weak opponent. Armstrong is someone who has taken Everitt's role and is underpriced for his potential production. Lamb will be the sub!

In: J.Koschitzke, S.Fisher, T.Milera, T.Simpkin
Out: S.Milne, B.Maister (hamstring), A.Saad, J.Saunders

Fisher back is the only notable in for the Saints, not too much from a fantasy sense to disucss other than Milera may get off the chain, especially with Saad & Milne exiting the team. Great option in Stadium, could have a major score!
In: S.Byrnes, M.Clisby, J.Spencer, D.Nicholson
Out: M.Jamar (toe), J.McKenzie (elbow), M.Evans (foot), L.Tapscott

Clisby will be set for his debut. i must admit to not knowing much about him, but watch any rookies closely this time of year. Spencer will be set for a lot of ruck time, great cheap investment in Stadium!

In: N.Hrovat, L.Hunter
Out: D.Addison, K.Stevens (shoulder)

Hrovat gets his third game finally, but fantasy coaches won't  be as sold on his job security now. Proceed with caution if you need a downgrade! Hunter will receive the vest, but has been getting good numbers in the VFL this year.

No change

In: M.Walters , T.Sheridan , M.Taberner
Out: -

Walters is a big inclusion for the Dockers, watch him run riot on his return, jump on in Stadium!

In: L.Anthony, L.Delaney, L.Greenwood, B.Jacobs, B.McKenzie
Out: S.McMahon (ankle), W.Sierakowski

Anthony may be a strong option if he avoids the vest. Will run riot in his home town on the big ground! These are Sunday teams, but watch with interest to see whether Jacobs, McKenzie or Greenwood is named!

Brisbane Lions
In: Brown, Merret, Moloney
Out: McKeever

The big JB is back! Three massive inclusions in fact for the Lions. unfortunately I don't see wither of these guys having much of an impact on the game as the Cats continue to build their record.

In: H.Taylor, T.Hunt, S.Motlop, J.Caddy, M.Blicavs
Out: T.West (back), M.Brown

The Blics is back! Been in great form, so don't feel devastated if he's starting in any of your fantasy sides. Otherwise watch with interest, but a well rested Taylor should dominate this game! In other news, Bartel survived, much to the delight of all his owners!

Priceless Projections (Updated)

The Ideal Fantasy Side (for AFL Dream Team) (Update 1)

Who are the top dreamers of 2013?

We have well and truly begun upgrade season. Something around this time of year which I consider to be a major help for me choosing my upgrade targets is having a projections list. A list of players in their positions whom I consider to be the best players to have by seasons end. Without further ado, I give you the first Priceless Projections. Just a bit of house keeping as well, I will have a post up every Monday morning by 10.
So all you fantasy nuts will know when to check in...

The Backmen
Ibbo, the real deal in 2013!

Goddard- proven performer, everyone should have him and if you don't get on ASAP. Very good durability and one of the only backs capable of averaging 105+!
Heppell- has broken out as predicted! Will be great for a 95+ average, has a very good inside and outside game, great durability as well.
Gibbs- will average 90+ and continually be a dependable option. Strong performer most weeks and that's more than you can ask from most backs this year.
Ibbotson- has been killing it this year and has now convinced fantasy players that he is a real option. Freo big run to come, Ibbo may well go 100+ from here on in, in his free wheeling role.
Hanley- has broken out this season. Watch for the tag but most backs seem to be susceptible. Can go massive and one who'll be firmly in the top 6 by seasons end.
Hibberd- another to have broken out big time! Michael has been dominant this year. I don't see the tag coming soon either due to Essendon having a large array of guns in differing positions. Get on!

The Next Bracket Options...

McKenzie, Scotland, Enright, Vlastuin, Dixon, Duffield, Birchall, Enright, Stanley, Hartlett, Waters

The Midfield Men
The Son of God is at it again in 2013!

GAJ- no explanation needed, will be the best fantasy man of 2013, and best player regardless of the stats.
Swan- the fantasy pig. Watch Buckley though, he's been playing our beloved as a small forward. Let the pig rack them up BUCKS!
Pendles- easy 110+ man, safe as houses. Good durability and just churning out another solid year.
Jack- read this
Barlow- read this 
Boyd- Watch him go from strength to strength in the second half of the year. Showed what he could do on Sunday. A genuine freak with great durability and a passion to play each week sees him avoid the rest, just watch those calves.
Montagna- a star of seasons past is showing that he can do it again. Saints have a reasonable draw for the rest of the year, and Leigh loves to beat up on the poor sides. Should be top 8 by seasons end!
Watson- another midfielder that performs weak in weak out. Susceptible to the tag on the rare occasion, but those moments are few and far between, getting to maximum form recently as well.

The Next Bracket Options...
Cotchin, Stanton, Dangerfield, Kornes, Mundy (check out the recent article on him, comes home strong), S Thomspon, Deledio, S.Selwood, J.Selwood, S.Mitchell, T.Mitchell

 The Ruckmen

He's Back!

Cox- The best ruck in the competition by far. Will have a few big games later on as the Eagles hit form!
Nic Nat- The next best option. Already gone back to back hundreds, had a predicted breakout before his groin troubles, and seems to be well and truly over that due to West Coast's slow rehab approach. Enjoy this star as he shoots you up the rankings!

The Next Bracket Options... 
Goldstein, McEvoy, Roughead, Leuneberge, Kreuzer

                                                                       The Forwards

Get on now, big back end of the season for Trav awaits!

- Lock, load, throw away the key and enjoy the ride. His skills are beyond ridiculous. Watch and marvel as he averages 110+!
Rockliff- Good strong option, will be up and down but will have a 95+ average which you can bank on.
Cloke- I'm calling it, big second half of the season coming up for this man. Got a good run and in form, if the Pies can click, watch him average 100+!
Voldt- All about whether he slows or not. Been the pick of the season thus far. Playing like the god which we'd seen in previous seasons. Would love to be enjoying this ride. His standard deviation is amazing as well!
Martin- Started to do what we all suspected he could. Other than the odd low, we have seen most of his scores as an 80+ with the odd BANG score. Could set a month on fire very soon. If he can continually hit his peak form, he'll be in the SJ bracket.
Bartel- looks to be the best of the rest. Averaging nearly a 100 this season, expect him to be strong at the run home, especially since the Cats will play a fair few games at Simmonds Stadium in the back half of the year!

The Next Bracket Options...
 Ryder, Stokes, Chapman, Buddy, Lewis, JJK, Goodes

So do you agree with the projections? Give a comment down below on what you'd have change! Thanks for reading :)

Wednesday, 19 June 2013

The Unique Men

    Patrick Ryder
Is Ryder the best forward or ruck for the run home?
Ryder by the Stats...

Stadium Fantasy Sport - 112.6ppg, $614,900, High (167), Low (57), Last 5- 125.5
AFL DT- 84.4ppg, $410,500, High (111), Low (45), Last 5-91, Owned by 4.97%, Break 52
AFL SC- 93.1ppg, $472,900, High (145), Low (54, twice), Last 5-91.6, Owned by 5.91%, Break 81
AFL Sportal- 95.75ppg, $349,800, High (127), Low (48), Last 5-104, Owned by 4.93%

Patrick Ryder, the 7th draft pick in the 2005 draft, 'Patty' has always been someone who has an excess of talent. 144 games into his career, the peak performances of Ryder (such as his 2009 ANZAC Day performance above) have been few and far between. Rather than just generally believing that Ryder continues to have flaky form, I'd rather look at the stats and recognize whether or not Ryder is an option in fantasy teams.

The first important decider on whether Ryder is fantasy material, is working out why he has such a great difference between his high and low numbers. Tom Bellchambers, the #1 ruckmen at the Bombers at the beginning of the season, has recently lost his role. Immediately we have seen a rise in Ryder's fantasy production. When Tom is in the side, Patty becomes the number 2 ruckmen as Tom isn't as good a forward as what Ryder is. Thus Ryder has less time in the midfield and his numbers suffer accordingly. The stats back this up (with/without Tom Bellchambers in the side);

Look at those numbers. The big one is the differences (in yellow)! When Tom goes, Patty's output goes through the roof. Now recently Tom has been dropped to the VFL by Hird, and thus Patty's output has elevated once more. The next 4 fixtures read;

Eagles @ Patterson's
Port Adelaide @ Etihad
Western Bulldogs @ Etihad
GWS @ Skoda

That's a very strong draw indeed! So the obvious question is, will Tom's demotion continue, or will he be brought back into the fold? It's the million dollar question, but I have a simple answer. Ryder has a low break even in all competitions. If Bellchambers isn't named for their next game, looking to bring Ryder in all competitions (especially AFL DT, with so many trades) is a wise move. Potentially Ryder could be the must have forward in the second half of the season. His 2 scores without Bellchambers in the side occured in the last 2 weeks against Carlton (108/110) & Gold Coast (111/101). These 2 teams certainly aren't weak opposition, so in this small amount of data we can conclude that Ryder can score strongly, no matter what the draw is! With an extremely low percentage of teams on him, and his relatively low price in all competitions, jumping on for Round 14 may well be a wise decision!

Anyway chat away in the comments, would love discussion on whether you think Ryder is fantasy relevant!

Tuesday, 18 June 2013

The Unique Men

David Mundy
Say Hello to your Fantasy Norm Smith Medallist
Mundy by the Stats...

Stadium Fantasy Sport - 121ppg, $662,200, High (174), Low (61.5), Last 5- 127.4
AFL DT- 96.6ppg, $472,500, High (131), Low (70), Last 5-104.6, Owned by 2.96%
AFL SC- 104.3ppg, $527,700, High (139), Low (63), Last 5-111.6, Owned by 4.43%
AFL Sportal- 128.55ppg, $475,700, High (186), Low (88), Last 5-156, Owned by 5.3%

The 19th draft selection in the 2003 draft (previously owned by the Dogs but on traded to the Dockers), David Mundy has steadily improved throughout his career in a footballing and fantasy sense. Someone who is constantly talked about in glowing terms for having elite disposal by hand and foot, Mundy is beginning to deliver on his potential as a fantasy star. The first figure which appears to be extremely important is his half yearly averages.

In 2011, Mundy was injured in the second half of the year and thus this is an outlier. Bar 2009, which was only his fifth season in the AFL (and a break out season at that), his numbers have improved during the second halves of years. Obviously we have begun the second half of the season, Mundy appears to be much like the Goodes-type 'second half of the season specialist'. These players are the ones that need to be owned by fantasy players, as a big second half of the season can not only catch your opposition by surprise, but it can allow for a season defining differential which could make all the difference come fantasy finals. Now to add fuel to the fire, this is how Mundy ended 2012 after battling injuries early in the year (AFL DT/AFL SC);

121/128 V Eagles
73/81 V Crows
130/117 V Richmond
125/129 V North
111/132 V Melbourne

Totalling 112/117.4

If he was averaging these numbers it'd place him on average as the 3rd best mid in AFL DT (disqualifying a 2-gamer in Tom Mitchell and Steve Johnson who can be picked as a forward) and the 4th best mid in AFL SC (using the same disqualification system). This also puts to bed the theory that he is only a Supercoach/Stadium Fantasy player (games which rely on quality as well as quantity). Now look at his recent numbers;

92/103 V Collingwood
105/104 V Sydney
131/131 V Melbourne
71/81 V Adelaide
124/139 V Brisbane

Totalling 104.6/111.6

Considering he hasn't yet hit the peak of his season (which is the balk half of the season as the data shows), these are very good numbers in both fantasy competitions. Also note that he managed to score well against strong opposition in Sydney and Collingwood, whilst also 'cashing in' on the weak teams. The next thing that needs to be considered is the Dockers draw till the end of the season. It reads; @ Patterson's
Cats @ Simmonds
Saints @ Patterson's
Eagles @ Patterson's

Tigers @ MCG
Crows @ Patterson's
Carlton @ Etihad
GWS @ Patterson's
Melbourne @ MCG
Port Adelaide @ Patterson's
Saints @ Etihad

Green= Weak opposition
Red= Difficult
Black= Mid pack  

That right there is a thing of beauty. 7 of the next 11 weeks are weak opposition, which are bleeding fantasy points in season 2013. They only have two very difficult opponents from their next 11. This is an amazing draw when you consider what it allows Fremantle to produce from a fantasy production! They certainly have the strongest draw on the run to the finals. Although their is the obvious risk of a resting, the draw is simply far too good to neglect a player simply because of the resting potential.

The final noteworthy point on David Mundy is his uniqueness in all competitions. Mundy is owned by no more than 5.3% in any fantasy competition. This is the differential that fantasy coaches need when tasked with attempting to get a leg up on the competition. Although the opposing point of view is they must be unique for a reason, I suggest that you consider all the numbers and don't be blind in your judgement. Mundy is ready to produce, the numbers back it up! Hope you're ready to jump on, with the Saints in Round 23 he may just be your Fantasy Norm Smith Medallist!

Thanks for reading fellas! Comments would be greatly appreciated! Also if you haven't already, check out the new fantasy game Stadium Fantasy Sport which is a fantastic way to win fantasy prizes, with a great scoring system to back it up. Already won $600 from them, and plan to win much, much more! Till next time fantasy fellows!

Thursday, 6 June 2013

The Teams Round 11 (From a Fantasy Perspective)

Obviously all fantasy players aren't relevant. Or are they?
If you aren't aware Stadium Fantasy Sport has made nearly every fantasy player relevant this year, with fantastic giveaways each and every match! The prizes on offer are fantastic for very little effort indeed. Anyway hope you enjoy as I provide the teams with a fantasy spin!

The Teams
He's back, just in time to terrorize the Dees

IN: Davey, Howlett, Hurley, Daniher 
OUT: Dempsey, Jetta, Gumbleton, Bellchambers. 

Daniher makes his debut for the Dons. Don't expect massive scores on a weekly basis, or a big score in this game, but watch closely, has huge potential! Might be a good cheap option for Stadium Fantasy this week. Howlett can go big and is another to watch in that game, I'm getting on! 

IN: Judd, Betts, Lucas 
OUT: Menzel, Bell, Bootsma.

Menzel out just confirms our job security fears over him. Betts might get under the guard this week, considering Garlett is likely to get more attention and Dempsey couldn't recover in time for the big clash.

Geelong Cats
IN: Podsiadly, Smedts, Stringer, Thurlow, Murdoch 
OUT: Taylor, Motlop, Schoder, Burbury, Blicavs.

Blicavs is a big out for fantasy coaches right across the country, with our Vardy fears potentially proving to be true. Burbury doesn't get his third game, proving our job security fears correct. Thurlow back helps out, and I'd expect a big game from the young Cat, good value in Stadium Fantasy this week. 

Greater Western Sydney
IN: Brogan, Gilham, Ugle, Plowman
OUT: O’hAilpin, Buntine, Wilson, Corr. 

Nothing much to announce here from a fantasy point of view... Moving on. 

Adelaide Crows
IN: McKernan, Henderson, Crouch
OUT: Martin, Brown, Lyons. 

Crouch finally gets his fourth game. An extremely relevant downgrade in my opinion. Unfortunately has the round 13 bye in the mids, but has brilliant job security and great scoring potential. If he can avoid the vest, I like him for  Stadium Fantasy as well. Martin continues to struggle in his attempts to hold a spot.

Sydney Swans
IN: White, B Jack
OUT: Jetta, Walsh. 

Brandon Jack not only got elevated today, but is playing his first game, in a competitive game nonetheless against the Crows. Expect him to be the sub, but a bold move nonetheless. Watch, and jump on if he's an iota similar to his brother Kieran. Jesse White is the obvious replacement for the hamstrung Tommy Walsh. 
Gold Coast Suns
IN: Patrick, Dixon, Hutchins
OUT: Horsley, Matera, Gorringe.

Charlie Dixon is back. Big news for GC and a nice little unique in  Stadium Fantasy this week. Gorringe goes out as we all suspected. Nicholls firms as the number 1 ruck (as I previously suggested here). Keep an eye on Dixon, as I stated he could be rather desirable if he gets solid ruck time from now on.

IN: Daw
OUT: Sierakowski.

Majak is back. That's the only change from the game. Helps a few teams out and hopefully he can remain through the byes at the very least, potential unique in Stadium Fantasy if he can find the 6 goal form he showed earlier in the season!

The Sunday Teams 

St Kilda Saints
IN: Maister, Jones, Dennis-Lane, Saunders, Dunell 
OUT: Fisher, Ferguson.

Nothing too fantasy relevant. Fisher is a big loss!

IN: Hams, Brennan, McGinnity, Cripps, Wilson 
OUT: Glass, LeCras.

JJK and Darling might have a feed against the Fisher-less Saints. Jumping on both for a day out might be an option in Stadium Fantasy. LeCras and Glass are big losses, giving the Saints an outside chance!
Melbourne Demons
IN: Sylvia, Sellar, Blease, Gawn, McDonald
OUT: Frawley, Strauss. 

Frawley out, just gives Cloke a better chance. Nothing else is too relevant, Gawn might be a needed player in some fantasy sides.

Collingwood Magpies
IN: Cloke, Sinclair, Paine, Oxley 
OUT: Krakouer.

Watch Cloke go bang this week. Maybe consider him for your Stadium Fantasy captain this week. Doubt anyone can go with him and I suspect the Pies will be wanting the kill!

Monday, 3 June 2013

The Unique Men

Michael Barlow
Is Michael Barlow a must have for the run home?
Bye- R11

By the Stats...
AFL DT- 108.1ppg, $530,000~, High (149), Low (81), Last 5-114.2, Owned by 5.92%
AFL SC- 111.7ppg, $550,000~, High (141, this week), Low (79), Last 5-117, Owned by 4.43%
AFL Sportal- 141.9ppg, $520,000~, High (180), Low (92), Last 5-147.6, Owned by 6.09%

We all love Michael Barlow. That is plain. He marauded around then Subiaco, like few had. Fremantle, a dire club who had never seriously challenged for a premiership suddenly had a star in their midst. In his debut game against the Crows he had 33 touches and 2.1! Fremantle had a new king. The weeks went on and his herculean average was around the 110 mark. Then Palmer, a much loved rookie not too long ago, was suddenly hated by all fantasy owners. Barlow's season ended at a 109.8/116 average, and that was that. Barlow had devestated the opposition week in week out for 13 games, but now found himself with a broken leg.

Broken Legs

This is important that we analyze the injury in its entirety before we go any further. It took Barlow approximately a year from when he did it, to get back on the field. This is a roughly the norm regarding this type of injury. Now we notice for the following 2 seasons, his numbers were down at 85.8/83.6 (2011, 9 games) and 96/95 (2012, 22 games). These numbers are obviously down on the incredible scoring that we saw Barlow deliver in his astounding debut year. But this is what interests me. Listening to players that have broken their legs, like Jed Adcock and Nathan Brown, both suggested that it took them roughly 18 months after playing their first agem on the footy field to 'feel themselves again'. If we use this logical explanation, it makes much sense that Barlow is now averaging numbers akin to his pre-injury numbers.

This Year
Barlow is back to his best! After a somewhat slow start 97/110, he has since turned in some awesome form, with scores of;

122/92 V Richmond
81/79 V Gold Coast
100/108 V Collingwood
123/119 V Sydney
149/138 V Melbourne
118/141 V Adelaide

Now as you can see by these numbers, he can score fantastically well against all sides, poor (Melbourne) and strong (Sydney). Now in the second half of the season he comes up against sides such as;

Brisbane @ Patterson's
GWS @ Patterson's
Melbourne @ MCG
St Kilda (Twice)
Port Adelaide @Patterson's

Not too mention West Coast and Richmond which he has also delivered massive scores on this year already. That means that 8 of the 12 matches left he has very favourable fixtures. Not that Barlow needs them if we go off those Sydney-type scores. Nonetheless, the question that must be asked is has Barlow rediscovered his scoring capacity of old, or is he simply in a good run of form. You should also consider that in his debut season, he sometimes got a tag, which will not occur given the likes of Mundy, Fyfe, Pearce and Hill running through their now. I'm going to back the data that he has now overcome all trauma of that dramatic incident on the 50 metre line of Subi. Get on the Barlow train while you can, because with a low score of 81/79, and him starting to hit that big score form, I see no reason why he won't average 110+/115+ for the rest of the season!

Stats from m0nty's fantastic site Fanfooty and chat in the comments regarding whether you think Barlow is back to his best in 2013 and whether he is the must have of the second half of the season!