Wednesday, 19 June 2013

The Unique Men

    Patrick Ryder
Is Ryder the best forward or ruck for the run home?
Ryder by the Stats...

Stadium Fantasy Sport - 112.6ppg, $614,900, High (167), Low (57), Last 5- 125.5
AFL DT- 84.4ppg, $410,500, High (111), Low (45), Last 5-91, Owned by 4.97%, Break 52
AFL SC- 93.1ppg, $472,900, High (145), Low (54, twice), Last 5-91.6, Owned by 5.91%, Break 81
AFL Sportal- 95.75ppg, $349,800, High (127), Low (48), Last 5-104, Owned by 4.93%

Patrick Ryder, the 7th draft pick in the 2005 draft, 'Patty' has always been someone who has an excess of talent. 144 games into his career, the peak performances of Ryder (such as his 2009 ANZAC Day performance above) have been few and far between. Rather than just generally believing that Ryder continues to have flaky form, I'd rather look at the stats and recognize whether or not Ryder is an option in fantasy teams.

The first important decider on whether Ryder is fantasy material, is working out why he has such a great difference between his high and low numbers. Tom Bellchambers, the #1 ruckmen at the Bombers at the beginning of the season, has recently lost his role. Immediately we have seen a rise in Ryder's fantasy production. When Tom is in the side, Patty becomes the number 2 ruckmen as Tom isn't as good a forward as what Ryder is. Thus Ryder has less time in the midfield and his numbers suffer accordingly. The stats back this up (with/without Tom Bellchambers in the side);

Look at those numbers. The big one is the differences (in yellow)! When Tom goes, Patty's output goes through the roof. Now recently Tom has been dropped to the VFL by Hird, and thus Patty's output has elevated once more. The next 4 fixtures read;

Eagles @ Patterson's
Port Adelaide @ Etihad
Western Bulldogs @ Etihad
GWS @ Skoda

That's a very strong draw indeed! So the obvious question is, will Tom's demotion continue, or will he be brought back into the fold? It's the million dollar question, but I have a simple answer. Ryder has a low break even in all competitions. If Bellchambers isn't named for their next game, looking to bring Ryder in all competitions (especially AFL DT, with so many trades) is a wise move. Potentially Ryder could be the must have forward in the second half of the season. His 2 scores without Bellchambers in the side occured in the last 2 weeks against Carlton (108/110) & Gold Coast (111/101). These 2 teams certainly aren't weak opposition, so in this small amount of data we can conclude that Ryder can score strongly, no matter what the draw is! With an extremely low percentage of teams on him, and his relatively low price in all competitions, jumping on for Round 14 may well be a wise decision!

Anyway chat away in the comments, would love discussion on whether you think Ryder is fantasy relevant!