Showing posts with label The Unique Men. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Unique Men. Show all posts

Tuesday, 23 July 2013

The Unique Men

Ricky Henderson
Less than 1.5% of Fantasy sides in
all comps are enjoying this star
!
By the Stats...
Stadium Fantasy Sport - 114ppg, $655,000, High (215.5), Low (25.5), Last 5- 134.2
AFL DT- 78.36ppg, $391,000, High (133), Low (13), Last 5-89.2, Owned by 2.26% 
AFL SC- 99ppg, $419,500, High (160), Low (16), Last 5-93.6, Owned by 1.18%

Position: (Def/Fwd)







Well a pick like this would certainly be as left field as it gets. Ricky Henderson, pick 10 in the 2009 Rookie Draft, previously played basketball before making a late run at football. He's always been a work in progress, but now at the age of 24, and with 65 games of AFL football behind him, Henderson is starting to perform at a level which not many suspected he could. He begun the season in his usual steady form, not setting the world on fire and being a bottom end type player of the 22. He was then injured in the Round 5 match against the Blues and finally battled his way back into senior contention by Round 11. Since the bye, Ricky has been played in a role off half back, rebounding as he plays on the oppositions third tall forward. Similar to the role that recently retired Graham Johncock use to play at stages. Since this positional move, his scores have increased dramatically (AFL DT/AFL SC);

105/101 v Gold Coast
89/85 v West Coast
106/106 v Collingwood 
133/160 v Geelong

Average: 108.25/113

That is a big average indeed. If he kept pulling out those numbers, he'd rival the likes of Goddard and Stevie J as best for their respective positions. In all likelihood, an average of 95~/100~ will be a much greater expected average from here on in. These numbers are still massive for their positions! When you take out the subbed scores of 38 v Carlton (injured) and 13 v Richmond, his overall average for the season becomes 90/93. These are fantastic numbers, and prove that with Ricky's reasonably low price at this moment, he shows tremendous value. His run home is as follows;

Freo @ Patterson's
Port Adelaide @ AAMI
North Melbourne @AAMI
Western Bulldogs @ Etihad
Melbourne @ AAMI 
West Coast @ Patterson's

This is not a fantastic run by any means, but nor is it dreadful, thus don't be too concerned by it. The issue with Henderson is not so much the opposition (because he has produced well on both quality and poor sides), but more so whether he can keep the form that he has displayed over the last 4 weeks. This is certainly a risky selection, but the dividends could be massive. When you factor in that he is averaging 90+ numbers in both major fantasy competitions, if you discount the subbed affairs, you should be able to back Ricky with a fair amount of confidence. With a new role, extremely good form and Adelaide still pushing for finals, I think Ricky could be a fantastic option for the rest of the season!


Thanks for reading everyone! Do you guys agree with this consensus, that Ricky could be a great choice in any format of fantasy football? Comment below! If you guys enjoyed the post like our page HERE and follow me on twitter HERE! Once again thank you fantasy fellows, good luck for the round ahead!

Saturday, 20 July 2013

The Unique Men

Brad Ebert
Just Look at those Numbers!
By The Stats...
Stadium Fantasy Sport - 112.6ppg, $728,300, High (190.5), Low (79.5), Last 5- 137.9
AFL DT- 102.53ppg, $532,900, High (137), Low (72), Last 5-118.2, Owned by 2.68%, Break 
AFL SC- 99ppg, $531,400, High (130), Low (69), Last 5-11.2, Owned by 0.84%, Break 
AFL Sportal- 122.73ppg, $474,100, High (159), Low (96), Last 5-139.4, Owned by 1.79%





Brad Ebert, pick 13 in the 2007 draft, landed himself at West Coast. The son of Craig Ebert, a former Port Adelaide Star, Brad soon sort a trade, packed his bags and was back in his families much loved colours. At 23, Ebert is beginning to hit his prime as a footballer. A hard running midfielder who can win the ball both inside and out, Ebert has established himself as a leader of the much improved port midfield. After an astonishing debut season with the Power which saw him average 26.4 disposals, Brad has begun to go past last seasons outstanding form!

One thing that a selection like this immediately grabs is uniqueness. Owned by a ridiculously low amounts of teams in all competitions, if this pick goes boom, your ranking will as well! Now Ebert is someone who has disposal efficiency issues, so I wouldn't recommend him for a pick in Supercoach. Anyway his numbers over the past five weeks (post bye) have been nothing short of outstanding! Take a look at this (DT/Stadium);

118/163 v GWS
114/105 v Sydney
137/190 v Pies
135/129 v Essendon
87/100 v Hawks

These numbers are phenomenal, totaling out to a 118.2/137.9 average! Those are premium numbers anyway you look at it! Especially when you take into account this article, which shows that sides such as Collingwood and Essendon are rated among the hardest to score against! The other things to note with Ebert is that he will always avoid the tag. In a midfield that hosts Boak and Hartlett, having a potentially ineffective Ebert running around loose doesn't worry the opposing coaches too much. This is vital when deciding whether or not Ebert is a good pick up. The other factor to consider is Port Adelaide's mouth watering draw to home;

Brisbane @ AAMI
Adelaide @ AAMI
Geelong @ Simmonds
GC @ AAMI
Fremantle @ Pattersons
Carlton @ AAMI 

That is a very nice draw indeed! There are 2 difficult matches, but given the type of player Ebert is, he could score just as well on them as any of the others. With this considered, four home matches and two away, the draw gives him a solid base to continue on with his mid 110's! He is certainly pricey at this stage, but if you have the money, or want to sideways an under performer, Ebert is the man. Consistent, durable, breaking out and with a handy run of fixtures, I think Ebert can continue his 115+/135+ type scoring and provided an Über premium in the middle of the park, with an Über uniqueness to go with it! Can't wait to see how he goes tonight!


Thanks for reading everyone! Do you guys agree with this consensus? Comment below! If you guys enjoyed the post like our page HERE and follow me on twitter HERE! Once again thank you fantasy fellows, good luck for the round ahead!

Monday, 15 July 2013

The Unique Men

Trent Cotchin
The name is known throughout the households of all adoring AFL fans. Trent Cotchin. Pick 2 behind Kreuzer in the 2007 draft, had numerous injuries though out his first two years but slowly developed to be, not only the Tigers captain, but someone who was equal second in the Brownlow in only his fifth season. Superstar at such a young age, now coming at a bargain price. Is it time to get on? 


As Cheap as it Gets!
By the Stats...
AFL DT- 92.93ppg, $415,300, L3-101
AFL SC- 108.07ppg, $501,600, L3-106.7
Stadium Sports- 125.7ppg, $648,700, L3-124.3








The back to back Jack Dyer medallist (B&F) has found the going a bit tougher in 2013 than he has in his 2 previous seasons. Averaging a massive 110.4(DT)/116.1(SC) in 2012, Cotchin not only was considered a top class midfielder, but he was simply entrenched. Picking our sides at the beginning of the year, many predicted Trent was about to add to his average once again. this was off the back of his final 10 rounds in which he averaged 119.5/124! Yes, he was averaging that highly for near on half a season! So what has gone wrong?

Season 2013

Cocthin's opening five weeks of this year were reminiscent of last year. He was averaging the same numbers, he was dealing with a tag and his owners were enjoying his consistent 100's in all forms. He picked up some form of injury in the round 6 match against Geelong (the injury has not been made public at this stage). He missed a week after that hiccup, came back and wasn't quite the same player, averaging 82/96 from round 8-13, coming up against poor sides such as the Dogs and the Dees. To me this is a blatant injury issue. Although the Tigers haven't announced any injury issues with Cotch, I think it's fair to say that when there is such a discrapency in the numbers, something is up. Anyway over the past 3 weeks, Cotchin has slowly upped his disposals, disposal efficiency and as a byproduct, his fantasy numbers. His last 3 weeks read (from most recent to least);


114/109 V GC
100/104 V North
85/107 V StKilda

Why Bring Him in Now?

Admittedly these numbers don't really read brilliantly in any sense of the word. The reason that I believe this trade is now such a good option is because of Cotchin's undeniable value! He's dropped majorly in all competitions. With our sides pretty much set, we are now looking to find strong bench cover. Cotchin no doubt fits the bill. if you're like me and have a Tom Mitchell type at M8, then there can be a rotation type policy. For the value that he is right now, and with back to back hundreds in DT, and 3 in a row in SC, Cotchin is now a brilliant value option. If he can deal with his injury, the potential for a 110/120+ average is still there. Don't miss out!

PS. Looking to the future, lock him in for 2014 across all comps now!

Thanks for reading everyone! If you plan to get in Cotch, comment below! If you guys enjoyed the post like our page here and follow me on twitter here! Once again thank you fantasy fellows, good luck for Round 16!

Wednesday, 19 June 2013

The Unique Men

    Patrick Ryder
Is Ryder the best forward or ruck for the run home?
Ryder by the Stats...

Stadium Fantasy Sport - 112.6ppg, $614,900, High (167), Low (57), Last 5- 125.5
AFL DT- 84.4ppg, $410,500, High (111), Low (45), Last 5-91, Owned by 4.97%, Break 52
AFL SC- 93.1ppg, $472,900, High (145), Low (54, twice), Last 5-91.6, Owned by 5.91%, Break 81
AFL Sportal- 95.75ppg, $349,800, High (127), Low (48), Last 5-104, Owned by 4.93%










Patrick Ryder, the 7th draft pick in the 2005 draft, 'Patty' has always been someone who has an excess of talent. 144 games into his career, the peak performances of Ryder (such as his 2009 ANZAC Day performance above) have been few and far between. Rather than just generally believing that Ryder continues to have flaky form, I'd rather look at the stats and recognize whether or not Ryder is an option in fantasy teams.

The first important decider on whether Ryder is fantasy material, is working out why he has such a great difference between his high and low numbers. Tom Bellchambers, the #1 ruckmen at the Bombers at the beginning of the season, has recently lost his role. Immediately we have seen a rise in Ryder's fantasy production. When Tom is in the side, Patty becomes the number 2 ruckmen as Tom isn't as good a forward as what Ryder is. Thus Ryder has less time in the midfield and his numbers suffer accordingly. The stats back this up (with/without Tom Bellchambers in the side);




Look at those numbers. The big one is the differences (in yellow)! When Tom goes, Patty's output goes through the roof. Now recently Tom has been dropped to the VFL by Hird, and thus Patty's output has elevated once more. The next 4 fixtures read;

Eagles @ Patterson's
Port Adelaide @ Etihad
Western Bulldogs @ Etihad
GWS @ Skoda

That's a very strong draw indeed! So the obvious question is, will Tom's demotion continue, or will he be brought back into the fold? It's the million dollar question, but I have a simple answer. Ryder has a low break even in all competitions. If Bellchambers isn't named for their next game, looking to bring Ryder in all competitions (especially AFL DT, with so many trades) is a wise move. Potentially Ryder could be the must have forward in the second half of the season. His 2 scores without Bellchambers in the side occured in the last 2 weeks against Carlton (108/110) & Gold Coast (111/101). These 2 teams certainly aren't weak opposition, so in this small amount of data we can conclude that Ryder can score strongly, no matter what the draw is! With an extremely low percentage of teams on him, and his relatively low price in all competitions, jumping on for Round 14 may well be a wise decision!

Anyway chat away in the comments, would love discussion on whether you think Ryder is fantasy relevant!

Tuesday, 18 June 2013

The Unique Men

David Mundy
Say Hello to your Fantasy Norm Smith Medallist
Mundy by the Stats...

Stadium Fantasy Sport - 121ppg, $662,200, High (174), Low (61.5), Last 5- 127.4
AFL DT- 96.6ppg, $472,500, High (131), Low (70), Last 5-104.6, Owned by 2.96%
AFL SC- 104.3ppg, $527,700, High (139), Low (63), Last 5-111.6, Owned by 4.43%
AFL Sportal- 128.55ppg, $475,700, High (186), Low (88), Last 5-156, Owned by 5.3%











The 19th draft selection in the 2003 draft (previously owned by the Dogs but on traded to the Dockers), David Mundy has steadily improved throughout his career in a footballing and fantasy sense. Someone who is constantly talked about in glowing terms for having elite disposal by hand and foot, Mundy is beginning to deliver on his potential as a fantasy star. The first figure which appears to be extremely important is his half yearly averages.



In 2011, Mundy was injured in the second half of the year and thus this is an outlier. Bar 2009, which was only his fifth season in the AFL (and a break out season at that), his numbers have improved during the second halves of years. Obviously we have begun the second half of the season, Mundy appears to be much like the Goodes-type 'second half of the season specialist'. These players are the ones that need to be owned by fantasy players, as a big second half of the season can not only catch your opposition by surprise, but it can allow for a season defining differential which could make all the difference come fantasy finals. Now to add fuel to the fire, this is how Mundy ended 2012 after battling injuries early in the year (AFL DT/AFL SC);

121/128 V Eagles
73/81 V Crows
130/117 V Richmond
125/129 V North
111/132 V Melbourne

Totalling 112/117.4


If he was averaging these numbers it'd place him on average as the 3rd best mid in AFL DT (disqualifying a 2-gamer in Tom Mitchell and Steve Johnson who can be picked as a forward) and the 4th best mid in AFL SC (using the same disqualification system). This also puts to bed the theory that he is only a Supercoach/Stadium Fantasy player (games which rely on quality as well as quantity). Now look at his recent numbers;

92/103 V Collingwood
105/104 V Sydney
131/131 V Melbourne
71/81 V Adelaide
124/139 V Brisbane

Totalling 104.6/111.6


Considering he hasn't yet hit the peak of his season (which is the balk half of the season as the data shows), these are very good numbers in both fantasy competitions. Also note that he managed to score well against strong opposition in Sydney and Collingwood, whilst also 'cashing in' on the weak teams. The next thing that needs to be considered is the Dockers draw till the end of the season. It reads;

http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2010/04/20/1225855/974748-pn-image-sport-dockers-david-mundy.jpgNM @ Patterson's
Cats @ Simmonds
Saints @ Patterson's
Eagles @ Patterson's

Tigers @ MCG
Crows @ Patterson's
Carlton @ Etihad
GWS @ Patterson's
Melbourne @ MCG
Port Adelaide @ Patterson's
Saints @ Etihad


Green= Weak opposition
Red= Difficult
Black= Mid pack  



That right there is a thing of beauty. 7 of the next 11 weeks are weak opposition, which are bleeding fantasy points in season 2013. They only have two very difficult opponents from their next 11. This is an amazing draw when you consider what it allows Fremantle to produce from a fantasy production! They certainly have the strongest draw on the run to the finals. Although their is the obvious risk of a resting, the draw is simply far too good to neglect a player simply because of the resting potential.

The final noteworthy point on David Mundy is his uniqueness in all competitions. Mundy is owned by no more than 5.3% in any fantasy competition. This is the differential that fantasy coaches need when tasked with attempting to get a leg up on the competition. Although the opposing point of view is they must be unique for a reason, I suggest that you consider all the numbers and don't be blind in your judgement. Mundy is ready to produce, the numbers back it up! Hope you're ready to jump on, with the Saints in Round 23 he may just be your Fantasy Norm Smith Medallist!

Thanks for reading fellas! Comments would be greatly appreciated! Also if you haven't already, check out the new fantasy game Stadium Fantasy Sport which is a fantastic way to win fantasy prizes, with a great scoring system to back it up. Already won $600 from them, and plan to win much, much more! Till next time fantasy fellows!