Monday, 16 December 2013

Fantasy Predictions: Scott Selwood

Just another +4 for Scooter, the tackling machine!



























AFL Fantasy Stats (AFL DT/ AFL SC)
Price: $587,500/ $561,000
Average: 108.4/103.8
Bye: Round 9
Early Draw: Dogs, Dees, Saints, Cats, Power, Blues, Dockers, GWS
Double-up Fixtures: Dees, Suns, Saints, Pies, Dockers
1st Half Average (DT): 108.6 (11)
2nd Half Average (DT): 108 (7)


Scott Selwood, taken at pick 22 in the 2007 AFL Draft has slowly developed into a footballer who can now provide an attacking element through his improving disposal in addition to his continuous excellent defensive capability. At 23, Selwood has already managed 110 appearances for the Eagles and won a Best and Fairest award in 2012 to further his credentials. 

2013 Season Review

Selwood has proved to be quite an interesting fantasy prospect, predominantly in the AFL Fantasy game, rather than in Supercoach. Although his disposal efficiency is reasonable for that of an inside midfielder, Selwood rarely has what Champion Data would deem important 'score assisting' disposals. Given CD don't rate the pure tackle numbers as highly as the other major format, his averages suffer. In fact only twice in his six season career has his Supercoach average been higher than his Fantasy average. Thus in Supercoach I'd suggest avoid him, as I don't believe he is capable of being a top 8 midfielder. Nonetheless, AFL Fantasy is a completely different beast and he certainly has value within this competition.
Now lets look at his stats from the past two seasons;

Kicks Handballs  Disposals  DE (%) Marks Tackles TOG
2013 12.7 12.9 25.6 68.8 4.6 7.6 85
2012 11 13.9 24.9 75.7 4.7 4.9 85.6


A quick glance at these stats gives quite a blatant reading. Scooter has begun to use the ball more by foot than in previous years. This coupled with a jump in his tackles per game numbers has seen a 10ppg fantasy climb for the youngest Selwood. In 2013 he had a highest score of 142, a low of 71 (twice) and 13 of his 18 matches passed the triple figure fantasy mark. Astounding statistics for someone who has previously had such a low following.

The reason behind the majority of fantasy player's lack of interest, is the fact that he is prone to a tagging role now and again. In reality, this tagging role makes a very small difference with Scooter still posting an average of 106.72 from 11 tagging role games. This suggests that although Scott's tagging role does have an effect on his average fantasy points, the effect is bordering on minor to non-existent. When we think back to the likes of Kane Cornes' heyday, we know that it's certainly possible to tag and rack up the fantasy points at the same time. 
An additional note on this to consider is that of Sharrod Wellingham, the ex-Pie who missed majority of this season through injury. Now in the fold, Sharrod may potentially free up Scott Selwood even more so. The less tagging roles, the better for Selwood owners, and they do look to be declining.

Finally we are seeing that Scott is slowly getting more and more of the ball. In recent seasons his disposal figures have climbed drastically and I'd predict that he'll again have a career best number in that department. With more emphasis on kicking rather than handballing and Simpson's gameplan revolved around ball retention, common sense would suggest that we should once again see an improvement in Scott Selwood's average fantasy score.

Synopsis

Selwood is someone who rarely pops off the page when you're looking to pick your fantasy side. He almost never does anything on the football field that has real wow factor, nor is he a highly sort after commodity by the media. What quality fantasy coaches should remember is this means he won't be picked by many at the beginning of this fantasy season. The term point of difference isn't something that always makes a positive difference in a fantasy season, and I avoid using it as much as possible. Lets think of him more so as a probable top 8 mid that only a very few will begin with. Like the sound of that? Yes... I do as well. 

Prediction: 112/109

Thanks for reading the first fantasy predictions article for the 2014 preseason! Hope everyone enjoyed that, there'll be more to come so click back every day!