Monday, 22 July 2013

Looking to the Future

Geelong, Gold Coast Correlation and Expectations
The Suns and Cats, may well be quite similar...


In 2007 the Cats became the established premiership contenders that they're today. A well known story among most footy fans, the Cats had an in-house analysis of themselves. The results weren't pretty. From then on they became a force to behold. They clinically dismantled Richmond in that weekends game and went on to win the premiership by the greatest recorded margin. Simple really! But what's this got to do with fantasy? Or Gold Coast for that matter? 

2007 wasn't quite like any year I've been involved in any of the fantasy competitions. That year, due to Geelong's progression as a side, and with so many breakouts occurring within the one year, the fantasy scores from the Cats were never seen before. Having a side with 8+ cats at any stage of that year would've been a side to reckon with. Bartel went from an average of (AFL DT) 98 to 114 (best scorer in the league by some distance), Stevie J 67 to 94, Corey 89 to 104, Mackie 69 to 83, Stokes 77 to 88! In those days especially, these types of averages were all top of the tree! What these scores predicate is that when a side goes from an also run, to a premiership contender, many of their players averages will jump substantially. It can also be thought of the other way around, the players scores are greater and thus the side is a premiership chance. Either way it doesn't really matter. the crux of it is, when you jump from one bracket to the next you'll see improvements in scores.

Gold Coast

As we saw on the weekend, Gold Coast are no longer easy beats. Collingwood were down, but not to the extent that they wouldn't have beaten a lot of sides in the competition. The Suns, led by the great bald man, are beginning to make heads turn. Statistically speaking, break outs occur from seasons 4 to 6 with more regularity than any other band if seasons for a footballer. With that in mind, we must use these types of facts to our benefit. Gold Coast will be entering their 4th season of football in 2014. They've been steadily developing. More importantly, they've got rolled gold stars in their ranks, beginning to gain the needed exposure to the elite level. With this in mind it then becomes a decision of how far you see Gold Coast going in 2014. They're an unknown quantity, expansion teams in the past haven't begun their progression with such faith in draft picks. One thing is perfectly obvious, they're on the improve. This is what me must take from it;

  • Across the board averages should improve as the team does
  • They have the caliber of player in their side to contend for the premiership

What does this all mean?

Obviously I don't have a crystal ball. Predicting the future is what the fantasy game is built on, and what a lot of life is built on, and if we could all do it their wouldn't be too much point to much at all. Loading up on Suns in 2014 will be a risky strategy, because you'll need improvement. But to win prizes, people who're risk adverse are unlikely to be in contention. Personally, with the addition of a previous AA player in Nathan Bock and the much publicized O'Meara v2.0 in Jack Martin, I think this group can go very far indeed. In 2014, I think they can contend for the top 4, with a view to winning the premiership in 2015. Thus, I'll be looking to start as many Suns as feasibly possible in 2014. A few names to consider for 2014 off the top of my head include;  Bennell, Dixon, Matera, Prestia, Swallow, Ablett, Martin and I'm certain a couple more will prove themselves before Round 1. Anyway it's a wait and see proposition at this stage. Gold Coast are on the up, so just make sure you have a lot of GC cover for when they take the next step! 

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